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Election forecasts miss the target
LIKE IT IS
Our perennial election day luncheon of political junkies didn’t do so hot this year compared to 2004. We blew it on four out of 16 prognostications, with one more still in the air at this writing.
This was no ordinary crowd, 33 in all, about half Democrats and half Republicans with a couple of independents. They were not all locals. We had three retired highly placed state officials, a retired Supreme Court justice, a federal judge, a retired superior court judge and a former mayor.
There were some business folk, some officeholders, some execs, some legislators, and in some cases, people who had run against each other in the past. Previous opponents chatted with each other just as amicably as if they hadn’t done pitched battle when on the campaign trail.
Anyway, we voted on the major races and the three statewide initiatives, not the way we wanted it to go, but the way we thought it would go.
Obama/Biden got 28 votes, McCain/Palin 4. Obama had coat tails for Democrats not only here, but all over the United States.
We voted wins for Congressmen Norm Dicks, Jay Inslee and a rare Republican win in Dave Reichert. The latter race isn’t settled at this writing. We gave Reichert 23 over Burner’s 9.
For governor, we gave it to GOP Dino Rossi, 19 to Gov. Christine Gregoire’s 17. Gregoire has been declared the winner. Lieutenant governor, Owen, 31, and McCraw, 0; secretary of state, Reed, 29, and Osgood, 1; state treasurer, Martin, 19, and McIntire 10 (we were wrong); state auditor, Sonntag, 30, and McEntee, 1; attorney general, McKenna, 21, and Ladenburg, 9; commissioner of public lands, Sutherland, 23, and Goldmark, 7; insurance commissioner, Kreidler, 30, and Adams, 0; superintendent of public instruction, Bergeson, 29, and Dorn, 4 (wrong).
We assumed all incumbent Kitsap legislators would be re-elected and in the open seats Democrat Finn would beat GOP Netherlin and GOP Jan Angel would beat Democrat Abel. For county commissioner, we picked Democrats Bauer and Garrido over Republicans LaCelle and Matthes. We favored Auditor Washington and Dalton for judge.
We guessed that I-985 on traffic and I-1029 on home care aides would fail, and I-1000 on assisted suicide would pass. We were wrong on I-1029 which also passed.
Our bonus question was based on Katie Couric’s question of Obama and McCain as to what was their favorite movie of all time. We asked our group what should it be.
Answers for Obama: “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,” “Alice in Wonderland,” “Reds,” “Boys Town,” “To Sir With Love,” “Borat,” “Philadelphia,” “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?” “Hawaii,” “Roots,” “Caddyshack,” “Shaft,” “Trading Places,” “Heaven Can Wait,” “Mary Poppins,” “To Kill a Mockingbird,” “Nightmare on Elm Street,” “Superman” and “Gone With the Wind.”
Answers for McCain: “Flying Leathernecks,” “High Noon,” “30 Seconds Over Tokyo,” “Barbarella,” “Rocky,” “White Christmas,” “Top Gun,” “Gone With the Wind,” “Knute Rockne,” “Gladiator,” “Stagecoach,” “Catch 22,” “Bedtime for Bonzo,” “The Unforgiven,” “We Were Soldiers,” “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “North to Alaska,” “Pretty Woman,” “Best Years of Our Lives” and “Grumpy Old Men.”
Their real answers to Couric? McCain said “Viva Zapata” and Obama said “Godfather” 1 and 2, plus “Lawrence of Arabia.”
Adele Ferguson can be reached at P.O. Box 69, Hansville, WA 98340.